Time-series ARIMA modelling of the <i>Labeobarbus</i> spp (Cyprinidae) fishery in water hyacinth-infested and non-infested sites in Lake Tana, Ethiopia

Ethiopia’s largest freshwater lake, Lake Tana, is home to 21 endemic fish species, the majority of which are cyprinids in genus Labeobarbus. The lake undergoing numerous ecological changes, including an invasion water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms (WH). aim this study was predict future productivity Tana by considering increasing infestation. This accomplished analyzing a 12-year fishery-independent time-series data set Labeobarbus, collected from sites infested and not hyacinth. stationarity investigated using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test. First-order differencing applied solve non-stationarity stationarity. With same standardized fishing gillnet sites, CPUE during dry season decreased 3,502 grams (3.5 kg/day) 2010 360 (0.36 kg) 2020 at hyacinth-infested demonstrating 90% decrease daily catch. A reduction catch per effort (CPUE) evident WH all seasons, rate fall there faster than non-infested site. Box Jenkin’s auto-regressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) modelling predicted that Labeobarbus will decline threefold % 2032 compared current Based on these results, most suitable model for seasons areas confirmed be ARIMA (0, 1, 0) lowest value Akaike Information Criteria (AIC’s). production declines with expanding infestation necessitate strategies, closed area spawning mesh size regulations conserve utilize resource sustainably. As only examined species study, forecasts should made other commercially significant Lake, such as Oreochromis niloticus Clarias gariepinus.